This seems like good advice for a lot of things.
Can’t forecast that far into the future? Up your cautions till you get more clarity, and then tamp down once you have more information and can calibrate.
Fast adaptation is easier than forecasting.
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People asking about variants. Of course. We should *up* our cautions, till we get more clarity. This was my piece from last day of 2020. Absolutely stand by it. New murky threat with exponential fuel: up your cautions. Clarity+data? Adjust & tamper down. theatlantic.com/science/archiv
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