This was brilliantly articulated, and very relevant for careers.
(A closely related skill is the ability to pick a good reference class, but this is thankfully not too difficult to learn — you just have to give it a go a couple of times, while asking for feedback.)
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On making optimal decisions, knowing when to expect the average outcome in life, and when not to.
My latest:
ofdollarsanddata.com/respect-the-ba