Efforts to improve forecasting work primarily by reducing random noise in predictions, not compensating for bias!
Remember when someone asked Kahneman "how do you avoid the biases you discovered" and he was like "I don't" and everyone made fun of him? WHO'S LAUGHING NOW?!
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This week's Commonplace post is a summary of a landmark paper from the Good Judgment Project — i.e. Satopää et al's BIN model. It gives us more evidence that it's better to tamp down on noise to improve decisions, instead of fighting cognitive biases. commoncog.com/blog/reduce-no
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