I've been trying to use 'Strong Opinions, Weakly Held' for a long time. I've mostly concluded that it's ineffective. Here's why, and what to use instead.
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A minor addendum to this, I realise people might go "oh, you're using it wrong", which was what I used to think too.
But eventually I realised that the ergonomics of an idea matters as well. If it's difficult to get people to use it, then switch to something easier instead.
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I would say that the bet making was easier to teach.
In practice, a Vietnam context made it difficult to use the language of odds, but I could get my team to a point where it was normal to ask "how confident are you?" as a way of measuring judgment strength.
Ditto for my boss.
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I like this
Personally I prefer something that I call stop loss.
E.g. I hold onto this belief until something happens (which may be a date or some other condition like after I lost x amount of money or time)
Only issue is I need to be more diligent to jot down and enforce it
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