Conversation

Don't know how I missed this:

has got a good take on the whole "forecasting is difficult" thing — just make as many forecasts as you want! Nobody's going to hold it against you! ofdollarsanddata.com/failed-predict Love it. Can't believe I didn't think of this take.

ofdollarsanddata.com

Why Failed Predictions Don't Matter – Of Dollars And Data

On the costs (or lack thereof) of being wrong about the future.

Replying to

and

IIRC Superforcasters talks about this in the first third of the book. Have a look at this great article + chart - I’m certain many people will hold poor forecasts against you in this context (free but need to register to read)

ft.com

JPMorgan goes bear hunting

Replying to

and

Ooh yes, but what I didn't see was the logical leap from "nobody cares how badly you forecast" -> "FORECAST AS MUCH AS YOU WANT, NOBODY CARES!"

Replying to

and

Hey Cedric, your website has a new favicon, right? What's the backstory?

Cedric Chin

@ejames_c

Replying to

@Dollar_Stearn

Wow, you noticed! I decided to start work on the webapp again (which is over at commoncog.com) and I figured it could do with a non-rubbish logo. We shall see if my optimism is misplaced. ;-)

5:12 AM · May 28, 2020TweetDeck