Conversation

Don't know how I missed this:

has got a good take on the whole "forecasting is difficult" thing — just make as many forecasts as you want! Nobody's going to hold it against you! ofdollarsanddata.com/failed-predict Love it. Can't believe I didn't think of this take.

ofdollarsanddata.com

Why Failed Predictions Don't Matter – Of Dollars And Data

On the costs (or lack thereof) of being wrong about the future.

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IIRC Superforcasters talks about this in the first third of the book. Have a look at this great article + chart - I’m certain many people will hold poor forecasts against you in this context (free but need to register to read)

ft.com

JPMorgan goes bear hunting

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Ooh yes, but what I didn't see was the logical leap from "nobody cares how badly you forecast" -> "FORECAST AS MUCH AS YOU WANT, NOBODY CARES!"

3:26 AM · May 27, 2020TweetDeck

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Yeah, it’s sorta a hobby among buy-side investors to have total contempt for sell-side analysts’ forecasts like how people shit on management consultants. The accuracy of sell-side forecasts isn’t their raison d’etre anymore but that’s a whole other story...

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Hey Cedric, your website has a new favicon, right? What's the backstory?

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Wow, you noticed! I decided to start work on the webapp again (which is over at commoncog.com) and I figured it could do with a non-rubbish logo. We shall see if my optimism is misplaced. ;-)