Cedric Chin on Twitter: "One nice thing that falls out of studying @PTetlock's work on forecasting? The complete freedom to ignore forecasts that are more than 5 years out into the future. Like this one, for instance: https://t.co/FdSE299po8 Nobody knows what will happen. Not even Roubini." / Twitter

One nice thing that falls out of studying

's work on forecasting? The complete freedom to ignore forecasts that are more than 5 years out into the future. Like this one, for instance: nymag.com/intelligencer/ Nobody knows what will happen. Not even Roubini.

nymag.com

Why Our Economy May Be Headed for a Decade of Depression

Nouriel Roubini predicted the 2008 crash. Now, he’s warning that the America is hurtling toward food riots — and then a decade-spanning depression.

11:39 AM · May 23, 2020TweetDeck

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forecasting is useless 5 years out??? I predict that in 5 years you will be proven wrong. 🤨

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Excellent point. The news thrives on amplifying predictions. If we factor in Matt Ridley's work, we can conclude that on average things will get better.

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Almost all investing is predicting more than 5 years into the future

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