I often skip over the role of luck in my writing.
Not because I think that luck doesn't exist, or that it doesn't have an outsized impact in life.
It's just that when you write about pragmatic, useful, proven ideas, 'waiting to be lucky' doesn't read as well.
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It's a problem that's built into writing, I think. Imagine if you read:
"Do X, X is useful and it helps you in your career."
"Or you could get lucky."
"There's also Y, Y is useful and it helps with your career."
"Or you could get lucky."
That would get tiring very quickly.
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Maybe you could write about the ‘lucky but not accidental’ frame. Stuff one can do like, move to your industry’s center, try to be generous when networking, blog if applicable, that sort of thing?
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I like your reference to Thiel's Calculus vs Probabilities thing.
It's definitely easy to write about expanding one's 'luck surface area', but where I'm finding it hard is when one writes about normal, practical approaches. It is difficult to include a discussion of luck there.
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Yes, it's definitely a hard subject. Richard Wiseman has attempted this a few times, but they were very weak and sometimes 'The Secret'-esque.
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