Conversation

So, mea culpa: what if superforecasting isn't as useful to the average person as I'd like to think? This week's

post is about the evolution of my thinking here:

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?

9:12 AM · Apr 28, 2020Twitter Web App

KimSia Sim (I tweet business & software stuff)

Replying to

and

I like the charles koch part. That made me want to buy the book. By the way, what you wrote reminds me of cynefin framework diagram en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_f Forecasting then act is probably good for at best 3 out of 4 quadrants. Some situations are pure chaos