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Ferguson et al (link) simulate outbreak response. Positive: They show suppression (lockdown R0<1) is essential as mitigation (R0>1, “flattening the curve”) results in massive hospital overload and many dead. BUT 1/3 (review attached) imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial

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Yaneer Bar-Yam

@yaneerbaryam

Mar 17, 2020

BUT: Resurgent outbreaks is wrong. They ignore Contact Tracing. After a few weeks of lockdown infectious people are identified, contacts are isolated and can't infect. In China cases are down to 1 yesterday except for imported international travelers that are quarantined 2/3

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You’re also assuming all imported cases can be identified, and none will cause resurgent outbreaks. True in the case of Singapore, coz we can afford to quarantine all arrivals (but impact to economy). But in countries with free movement between regions and states?

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Thought through it a bit more. I see your point. You’re saying contact tracing can limit spread in all instances of small outbreaks. Even if a super-spreader event occurs, you can simply lockdown temporarily to contain. Not sure how this is materially different from OP, but ok.

6:18 PM · Mar 17, 2020Twitter Web App