Forecasting best practices are really, really difficult. In this post, I recount my attempts to apply -style superforecasting techniques to the COVID-19 outbreak for personal reasons, and made all kinds of mistakes:
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I think the thing that made the biggest difference was actively looking for base rates (also called 'taking the outside view'):
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But I really messed up by using SARS as a frame of comparison for far too long:
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The upshot: if you have the time to do so, and you want to practice these techniques, apply for the next Good Judgment Project.
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Want to find out whether you know as much as you think you do about world events, starting with covid19? Sign up for a forecasting tournament to compete against easy benchmarks (dart-tossing chimps) or harder ones (seasoned professionals/superforecasters) gjp2.org
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