A gentle reminder if you're waking up to COVID19 and you've just started reading up: the goal is to make calibrated assesments. Think in terms of % confidence, not 'this is true, this is not true, and this is maybe true (and I should panic!)'.
Conversation
Replying to
If you're too busy to do this work, one thing you could do is to go to 's profile, click on his lists, and then subscribe to the list labeled 'coronavirus'. It's a collection of vetted resources. More importantly the scientists on it regularly talk to each other.
1
1
You'll notice that they are quite calibrated in their assessments. And they regularly reach consensus.
Take the recent news about COVID19 reinfections. People in my feed are freaking out. But the scientists on that list are reserved. It's just a few reports. No consensus yet.
1
1
Maybe the hack here is, if you're too inexperienced in judgment to form well calibrated assesments, find a community of experts you trust and follow them as they develop a consensus in an uncertain environment.
2
2
(This is a subtweet to all those who are comparing the current outbreak with the Spanish Flu.)