This entire thread. Heh.
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Perez’ ideas are lauded and cited by many of the best VCs of the last generation. But I think none of them follow what she actually says
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You buy this? It's the EXACT same line of thinking that is thought and said every single time we are about to experience a major paradigm shift. Go back all the way to 50s and we had smart people say exact same nonsense "no new tech on horizon, you can't beat incumbents".
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Check out what was said during mainframe to micro transition, or micro to pc or pc to networked (Internet) or Internet to social or social to smartphones lol. I'm sure I have skipped others. Now we have multiple paradigm shifts happening so it's even crazier (in an awesome way)
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So yes, I do buy this. Neumann’s written a great summary of the theory here: reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-de
It’s too early to say if it’s true, but it’s certainly plausible. I’ll put the strength of my belief at 70ish %. Probably 73%.
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A final point, the theory presented works reasonably well when there is a single dominant paradigm shift that has entered deployment age, in this case ICT. This is not the case now because ICT has opened up multiple new paradigm shifts that are all in the earlier part of cycle
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This is a fair point. I haven't done as much thinking on this, but I'm aware that this is similar to 's conception of multiple technologies on different points of the technology adoption cycle.
I probably have picked up it somehow from one of his presentations or tweets. But it is NOT a new phenomenon, we have always had multiple paradigm shifts happening. They are just harder to model for economists (and everyone else really) so we simplify and approximate to one 😂
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Thank you for YOUR time. You’ve made me think, and for that I’m grateful 🙇♂️
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