This week’s post is a comprehensive summary of the rules and criterion of the Good Judgment Project, adapted in service of evaluating one’s predictions.
commoncog.com/blog/how-do-yo
Conversation
One of the more interesting things, diving into The Good Judgment Project, is that the entire research program is really a fertile ground for testing related things like “How effective is cognitive debiasing? Can debiasing even work?”
Surprisingly, however, training serves to decrease noise, instead of helping with bias. knowledge.insead.edu/strategy/the-s
I can’t find an actual paper about this, probably because I haven’t searched hard enough. But this seems to be a very recent discovery.
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Choice quote from the article above:
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Anyway, as this is a recent development, many of the things Tetlock, Mellers and co have said about overcoming cognitive biases needs rethinking. They’re changing their minds about the mechanism — we should too.
(Also note that Kahneman’s been working on a book … about noise!)