Conversation

Cedric Chin

@ejames_c

Wtf wow, the hot hand is a thing again?!

Quote Tweet

Michael Shermer

@michaelshermer

·

Sep 2, 2019

“The hot hand is a massive and widespread cognitive illusion.” —Daniel Kahneman I've accepted this ever since the 1985 Gilovich, Vallone & Tversky paper & tweeted about it the other day (a streak of baby girl births) but a reader sent me this new analysis: https://scientificamerican.com/article/momentum-isnt-magic-vindicating-the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks/…

7:31 AM · Sep 3, 2019·Tweetbot for iΟS

1

Like

Michael Goodrum

@mgoodrum

·

Sep 3, 2019

Replying to

@ejames_c

Gilovich stuck to his original story on Freakonomics, which has created some confusion. Andrew Gelman summarizes here: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2017/04/02/gilovich-doubles-hot-hand-denial/…

1

1

Cedric Chin

@ejames_c

·

Sep 3, 2019

Replying to

@mgoodrum

Thanks for the link 🙏 I had no idea that the criticisms were so widespread!

1