I follow finance people (#fintwit) and VCs on Twitter. What they say are sometimes very discordant. 1/4
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Finance people: “as an investor, the end of a cycle where everyone is exuberant about capital is when you should be the most fearful … because prices will be bid way above value.” 2/4
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Meanwhile in VCland … (3/4)
Quote Tweet
Capital is a commodity—there’s an oversupply of money seeking yield
It’s an incredible time to be a founder or VC—capital is plentiful and the marketplace for talented people starting companies is unlimited (as long as you look outside central casting)
Growth mindset 
twitter.com/paranoidbull/s…
twitter.com/paranoidbull/s…1
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I’m interested to see how this all turns out. At some point, I suspect, things will change. And when they do it will be great to invest in startups again.
Epistemic status: relatively uninformed; speculative.
End (4/4)
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All depends what type of investors you follow.
VCs (early) - far less price dependant.
Value investors (late/public) - very price dependent.
So both views can make sense and are not mutually exclusive.
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I'm surprised to hear that early-stage VCs aren't that price dependent. (Is it true? How does it interact with the other variables like rights and % share?) My prior is that *all* investors have to think about price.
Thanks for the tweet! Something for me to investigate.
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1/ They do think about price, but far far less (from what I understand). The logic goes: at early stage, say I overpay for an investment (£5m instead of £3m at series A), I can still only lose £5m. But if you don’t invest and that company turns out to be an Uber...
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2/ I’ve potentially lost out on 100x upside. So for a VC, where the best companies are competitive, the downside is limited and small whereas the upside is potentially very very large.
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