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I am confused by the wording of the expected time saved example, in your post and the original: "In our scenario above, it makes more sense to attempt Task A instead of Task C, because if Task A fails you save 240 minutes (which means 0.1 x 240 = 24 minutes in expectation)."
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It seems like this should read: "In our scenario above, it makes more sense to attempt Task A instead of Task C, because if Task A [succeeds] you save 240 minutes (which means 0.1 x 240 = 24 minutes in expectation)."
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Oh, it’s [fail], not [succeed], because if Task A fails, then you don’t even have to do Task B (your entire approach is flawed). And since Task B takes 240 mins, you can just view that as time savings.
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