Basic fact: there's no relationship between top tax rates and the number of millionaires in a statepic.twitter.com/sBbcBtD2dD
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There's more analysis in the book.https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=27987 …
That's fair ... although it probably can only be sketchily investigated ... the incentive to live certain places might also decline if taxes go down (imagine if CA hadn't subsided Hollywood or Silicon Valley)
Further, if tax rate matters ... there are some oddities here. What is it about CT, for example, that makes is THAT much better for millionaires than NH, despite the much higher tax rate?
Agree, it's a causal mess, even effects at the margin possibly reverse long-term as you describe
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