I dont trust myself to have opinions about Big Things because I see people much smarter than I am fuck up all the damn time on basic issues and man im sure im worse Socrates was right
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Replying to @eigenrobot
Leaning towards a 60%-confident view is better than doing nothing. Just don't be 90%-confident when the evidence only merits 60% confidence.
2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
Replying to @AlanMCole
the larger the issue and the more degrees of freedom, the closer to zero your prior ought to be with Big Ideas (eg "X is the best form of government!") even modal choice is going to have v small p I think so yeah, maybe corrollary is keep your beliefs small + precise
4:16 PM - 20 Mar 2018
0 replies
0 retweets
3 likes
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