Hey--sorry for slow response, had to step away. Will answer in as soon as stationary. Deserves better than a shitpost :)
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Major and genuinely-macroeconomic events tend to be (i) idiosyncratic, (ii) unexpected, and (iii) plausibly influenced by a large number of exogenous factors. This makes it basically impossible to build a robust theory to consistently predict policy counterfactuals. :/
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(ii) Education! Education is a fucking mess. It's likely that all else equal, the price of education for undergraduate students has increased wealth inequality in the United States. But it's not obvious to me that better funding from the state would have fixed this. :c
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