Hey--sorry for slow response, had to step away. Will answer in as soon as stationary. Deserves better than a shitpost :)
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in macroeconomics, where we spent 1/6 of my 1st year PhD sequence picking at the Great Depression (where, surprise, there was no consensus). Another case study in macro-agnosticism: we don't have a clean theory of why the *Industrial Revolution* to happen where and when it did.
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Major and genuinely-macroeconomic events tend to be (i) idiosyncratic, (ii) unexpected, and (iii) plausibly influenced by a large number of exogenous factors. This makes it basically impossible to build a robust theory to consistently predict policy counterfactuals. :/
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