the struggle to achieve and maintain Chill is real https://twitter.com/AuerbachKeller/status/826184964760760320 …
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I fell into a kind of counter-paranoia about the executive taking advantage of the social madness to do all sorts of terrible things. 5/
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I'm not sure whether today's paranoia is quite the same; in particular it's partisan, and dissent or critique doesn't seem to lead to /6
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lead to brutal social ostracism like it did in 01. But I think one important lesson is to take a deep breath and reflect, frequently, on /7
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one's fear, and to consider the proportionality and utility of that fear. Because otherwise you end up doing really stupid shit. /thread
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it's hard to evaluate expected utility when there are potential outcomes on the tails that are really, really bad
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it's why people have a hard time thinking about natural disasters
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P(the government collapses) just crossed the threshold of not rounding to zero for a lot of people and they can't deal
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no disagreement and I like this formulation! I had meant only to appeal to sangfroid, not to critique any specific U calculation
End of conversation
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