Trump can't be called a black swan if Simpsons anticipated it so well. Lets call it Painted [Black] Swan. Plausible but dismissed as absurd.
depends on your time horizon. would have called Trump a tail risk as of say June 15
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it would be low probability, say 1%; there were still only what 30-some candidates. taleb describes BSwans as
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such infinitesimally low probability as to be in the realm of model error.
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