2. market activity. I've checked a bunch of indicators; average effect always near 0, though a bit noisy. What's the next step?
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3. Option A: develop theoretical explanations for the null result. I have at >=4 explanations, some v. neat but I think it would be hard ...
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4. to say for sure which are important. Plus, maybe policymakers value theory less than empirics (good choice probably!). So, alternative...
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5. would be an attempt to make a point about the cost-effectiveness of these raids, w/emphasis on cost to sex workers esp. + also clients.
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6. Need to think a bit about how to do this, auxiliary data + studies, etc. And any estimate would end up a lower bound. But likely feasible
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7. & I think there's a history in economics of considering seriously the cost of laws to lawbreakers, who are people [probably ~all people!]
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8. Anyway, lots to do. No rest for the wicked. Happy Halloween folks!
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