This... does not inspire confidencehttps://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808 …
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it gets even trickier because there are often interactions between the environment and the explicitly considered action. maybe the stimulus wouldn't have caused inflation without a supply crunch, but with the supply crunch happening it did accelerate inflation
in the latter case, was the prediction good or bad? at this point i think we are getting into talmudic territory and i defer to those who are better equipped for such considerations :) anyway its all very tricky and i mostly wish people would speak with less confidence.
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