This... does not inspire confidencehttps://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808 …
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so--and im not saying this is what happened, i don't know enough here--a person might have reasonably predicted that the effect of the spring stimulus on inflation was going to be negligible, but then a bunch of supply issues caused inflation so were they wrong? who knows, maybe
it gets even trickier because there are often interactions between the environment and the explicitly considered action. maybe the stimulus wouldn't have caused inflation without a supply crunch, but with the supply crunch happening it did accelerate inflation
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