This... does not inspire confidencehttps://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808 …
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in many cases the prediction about the difference--if we do x, y will increase-- stays valid despite environmental volatility, but it won't be obvious, because the environmental changes have an effect on y that overwhelms the effect that x had on y
so--and im not saying this is what happened, i don't know enough here--a person might have reasonably predicted that the effect of the spring stimulus on inflation was going to be negligible, but then a bunch of supply issues caused inflation so were they wrong? who knows, maybe
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