This... does not inspire confidencehttps://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808 …
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all of this is built around "ceteris paribus", ie "all else equal", which is a way of saying "this prediction depends on stuff that matters but not what we're explicitly considering staying about the same" when the environment gets volatile the assumption gets weaker
in many cases the prediction about the difference--if we do x, y will increase-- stays valid despite environmental volatility, but it won't be obvious, because the environmental changes have an effect on y that overwhelms the effect that x had on y
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