This... does not inspire confidencehttps://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1461651190144503808 …
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more concretely "if we do more of x, x will probably increase" is the sort of prediction we're fairly good at making and this is often though not always reliable but if you were to ask us in a void "what will inflation be next year" predictions are somewhat harder
all of this is built around "ceteris paribus", ie "all else equal", which is a way of saying "this prediction depends on stuff that matters but not what we're explicitly considering staying about the same" when the environment gets volatile the assumption gets weaker
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