Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

Tweets

eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      Purple Whale Retweeted eigenrobot

      This makes intuitive sense. If you have strong, counter-consensus beliefs about, say, the price of soybeans you can trade soy features and make a mint.https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1456485948946935819 …

      Purple Whale added,

      eigenrobot @eigenrobot
      Replying to @Duderichy @leepavelich
      generally if people are uniformly wrong about something in economics and you are right the clearest way to prove it is by using your superior knowledge to take their money from them. its p hardcore and its correct.
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      Even in the general case, as the Old Testament teaches us, beliefs should "cash out" in anticipated experiences.https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a7n8GdKiAZRX86T5A/making-beliefs-pay-rent-in-anticipated-experiences …

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      But in this case, Tyler is wrong, Eigen is wrong, our intuitions are wrong. That is because the market is a not an algorithm that spits outputs based on statistical inputs. If you change the way you calculate inflation, there is no reason to suggest it will change market prices.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      Market prices are a forward-looking schedule of predictions, based on information aggregated from innumerable actors. If you believe in markets at all, you should think that they *already* outperform bureaucratic statistical measurements.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      At the extreme, this is obvious. If Venezuela admits that inflation is actually a teensy bit higher than its cooked stats claim, the Bolivar does not suddenly tank. Everyone already knew that real inflation was higher than reported.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      At the mundane, it is obvious. If you have a better way to measure soybean volumes, it does not necessarily translate into an advantage in predicting soy futures. If it does, the only way to arbitrage it may literally be to start your own international commodities trading firm.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      But wait! Don't markets respond to CPI and other BLS statistics? Doesn't that mean market participants are using these data as inputs to make predictions?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      Sort of. The inputs are useful in coordinating government policy with market participants. In that sense, they are "accurate"; they accurately reflect what the government will base policy on.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5

      Thus, having a better theory for calculating inflation still doesn't necessarily get you any alpha. @leepavelich @eigenrobot @NLRG_ @Duderichy

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    10. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Nov 5
      Replying to @PurpleWhale12 @leepavelich and

      hmm want to think about this a bit but i havent slept in 36h so its a little tough my kneejerk response is that "the market" isnt necessarily a useful aggregate concept here, perhaps markers eventually roughly coordinate but not all at once and not all actors

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Nov 5
      Replying to @eigenrobot @PurpleWhale12 and

      im not gonna be able to get much more granular than this in my condition sadly 🙃 grasping at the wisps of more coherent thoughts but theyre out of my reach right now im not confident your right but i think your argument is good regardless!

      1:06 PM - 5 Nov 2021
      • 3 Likes
      • NLRG Loves Recursive Guises Richard Bibeault Purple Whale
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Purple Whale‏ @PurpleWhale12 Nov 5
          Replying to @eigenrobot @leepavelich and

          You sir are a class act. Even on low sleep!

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Nov 5
          Replying to @PurpleWhale12 @leepavelich and

          ❤️

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2021 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info