whats most interesting to me about @realchrisrufo is not the object level nor even the absolute extent to which hes managed to shape Discourse by pure force of will and animal cunning but the fact that he managed to do so while being completely open about his strategy and tactics
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a further issue is that there might not actually be any effective counter to these tactics at current margins and so announcing them openly is a massive flex on ones opponents and quite demoralizing for them which matters in a preference falsification regime
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anyway this is just spitballing. i have no idea how i would test any of this and you shouldnt believe any of it. enjoy your Wednesday
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one other thought this may work especially or specifically when an opponent has been occupying a bailey for so long theyve don't know how, or that they need, to retreat in the face of a capable assault rufos opponents may have very much overextended themselves in this manner
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I’m not familiar with Chris’s stuff but this is something I personally care about a lot myself with my own work. I think I’ve been very transparent overall, albeit sometimes a little bit oblique about the late-stage to avoid summoning the worst sort of tedious overreactions
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an important aspect is that it has to be legitimate/genuine, meaning you have to be able to back up your claims with your body of work being able to weave criticisms of the work into the work is also very powerful being willing to play a very long game also helps
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I think this is it, combined with the fact that a lot of the coordination/discussion happened on Twitter, so normies didn't see it (so less perceived manipulation)
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Having the coordination take place largely on Twitter also meant that the counter-coordination happened largely on Twitter, which on this issue in particular meant the counter-coordination was a poor match for the "real world" to the extent such a thing exists.
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Worth noting a public plan doesn’t even have to be all of the plan for it to be an effective strategic narrative. I don’t think that’s the case here, but worth remembering that positive co-ordinating/mandate-making effects are accessible without tactically imperfect information
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One too many double negatives in that last sentence, oops
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My prior is that 3 almost always outweighs unless the plan involves deliberate misdirection. Coordination costs are just huge and lowering them almost always a major advantantage.
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this is basically my take as well actually, I would go so far as to say that the reason 1 often ends up not mattering in practice is that if deliberate misdirection is not a factor, then the value of secrecy is basically nil, if not outright negative due to coordination cost
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