the author is an incredibly sharp guy and worth listening to. also a gamerhttps://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1452500653662609411 …
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eigenrobot Retweeted Tracy Alloway
the author is an incredibly sharp guy and worth listening to. also a gamerhttps://twitter.com/tracyalloway/status/1452500653662609411 …
eigenrobot added,
this is fucking bananas i dont know what it means but it probably represents a substantial and perhaps permanent restructuring of the economy
Stuff like this frustrates me because it doesn’t show the denominator. “Bnemployment rate” = “Unemployed workforce” / “Total workforce” But “total workforce” is a fucky measure Like, this graph makes perfect sense if the “workforce” dropped by X% during Covid
Well how about thatpic.twitter.com/3OnAhp5OjC
one could probably plot it with unemployed + discouraged as denominator etc hmmm i think the main point is the extent to which it reflects changes in the relationship between ppl + the labor force which is whats interesting to me
man that series never really recovered after 08
I think that’s more an artifact of boomers retiring. Downtrend started before ‘08. Of course the crisis probably accelerated the trend. Early retirements, etc. Same with Covid
The main point that I’m trying to make here is that the graph shows “we have more job openings than seem historically justified based on the unemployment rate.” So my first question is, is there something effed with the unemployment rate? I think there is.
And it’s actually a numerator *and* a denominator problem. Like say unemployment is 5M out of 100M = 5%. Then 2M unemployed “leave the workforce”, now 3M/97M = 3.1%, but the same number of people still aren’t working
right but maybe theyre not coming back and if "the unemployment rate means something different now than it used to" that also implies a pretty substantial structural change
For sure! I think “X million people permanently left the workforce” is a pretty big deal and well worth serious consideration. And I think it has been given somewhat, e.g. I know I’ve seen articles about women’s labor participation rate possibly facing a permanent drop
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