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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
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eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 18

      going to be an exciting week in china real estate markets another big developer probably missing a bond payment today, evergrande likely to formally hit default at some point this weekhttps://archive.is/qkINL 

      3 replies 23 retweets 140 likes
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    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 18

      also Official report coming out on property prices, believe as much of that as you like ive heard rumors of impending price controls in various cities which strikes me as darkly funny. like usually price controls in real estate are ceilings rather than floors you know

      3 replies 3 retweets 62 likes
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    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 18

      im trying to imagine a world in which this makes things better. like usually price floors just result in overproduction /if you have a guaranteed buyer/. but here you dont afaik so it seems like this just prevents many sales from happening at all but

      5 replies 0 retweets 47 likes
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    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 18

      to the extent chinese real estate is better viewed as an investment vehicle maybe this works in some way by making everything illiquid. dont have to mark down assets as depreciated or whatever even if you cant actually sell them and so you just kick the can down the road further

      4 replies 0 retweets 51 likes
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    5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 18

      this seems like a stretch to me and i dont think it works since as i understand it the model for most developers relies on high turnover of these properties, and freezing the market screws them harder maybe it makes households who own homes feel better. prevents fire sales? idk

      3 replies 0 retweets 39 likes
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      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 18

      please read this thread as pure speculation and me trying to steelman their policy i dont understand how their markets work at a granular level my baseline hunch that theyre kind of fucked remains tho

      12:36 AM - 18 Oct 2021
      • 45 Likes
      • pureblood idprism ❤ 🇺🇸 ✠ Dedicating Ruckus Bronze Age Colonel Thor 3’2” IQ 232 🦇 sir(?) festive lawn carrot 🦇 Thad Monky Charles DeGlopper ~~~ Google Doc Duvalier ℝeal Radley // 5’6”
      6 replies 0 retweets 45 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 19

          oh shit xi was (is?) trying to push through a property tax. note that previously this had not existed in china note this is functionally a bigass bite to the use of real estate as /the/ household store of value in chinahttps://www.wsj.com/articles/in-tackling-chinas-real-estate-bubble-xi-jinping-faces-resistance-to-property-tax-plan-11634650751 …

          5 replies 1 retweet 40 likes
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        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 19

          price floor would make more sense in this context. lol. government sets asset price and also tax rate what could go wrong apparently theres an incipient party rebellion over this interesting times and all that

          4 replies 0 retweets 39 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. all-paca father‏ @OneEyedAlpaca Oct 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          i wonder if this is what (partially) prevents china from winning a hypothetical war with the us

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Prince Vogelfrei‏ @PrinceVogel Oct 18
          Replying to @OneEyedAlpaca @eigenrobot

          It's the oil, among many other things They just don't have the blue water capacity to fight us in the Indian Ocean, which means we could cut off a staggering amount of their oil supply.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Fernando Borretti‏ @zetalyrae Oct 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          This crisis is unfolding so gradually my attention span can't keep up. I first heard of this 58 news cycles ago.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. blissfully married srav‏ @thesravaka Oct 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          the interesting bit will be whether this relaxes their labor markets by making the internal migrant labor markets more able to buy property. alternately it might break labor markets if they lose faith in housing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. The Bicoloured-Python-Rock-Snake‏ @pythonrocksnake Oct 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          >i dont understand how their markets work at a granular level Among the biggest questions of the moment is whether anyone actually does, to include Xi & CCP.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. naked short‏ @nakshort Oct 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          calling them markets is generous

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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