yields on international chinese real estate debt are up to something like 15%, purchases by intl buyers are stalling out something like only 10-20% of the sectors debt is international so maybe they could make up for it domestically by CCP fiat, but all of it all at once? dicey
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evergrande isnt even responding to inquiries from intl lenders technically theyre still in a grace period before proper default but this seems Highly Irregular and my expectation is that intl lenders are gonna be just SOL
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reportedly china is pretty sealed up financially so maybe this is like a bomb going off inside a bunker, sucks if you're in the bunker but maybe ok if you're outside maybe maybe
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reportedly something like $100B in intl bonds from chinese real estate coming due before end of year INTERESTING TIMES
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be poetic if chinas rise and fall were bookended by olympics in beijing and given the way the simulators operate i have to expect this is how it will go downhttps://twitter.com/EricMertz_KC/status/1448488097092624387?t=FEQRQYykERORascD4Iiyyg&s=19 …
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That sounds a lot like the doomsaying surrounding the three gorges dam last year. I'll believe it when I see it.
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believe what you like, probably not much in the way of decisions youll have to make around it
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Roaring 20s indeed
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Tbf Xi would probably be happy both to lock Chinese real estate out of international markets, and to reduce local real estate prices so that family formation is more affordable.
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problem is this would be accompanied by economic disaster for most of china owing to 30% of GDP being in res construction and most personal savings in housing otoh maybe that was gonna happen anyway anyway good luck china
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