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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 14

    eigenrobot Retweeted Lord Woodstone (Toss all MAPS out the airlock)

    fantasia reportedly was unexpected and resulted more or less in chinese real estate starting to get locked out of international markets some numbers i roughly remember:https://twitter.com/EricMertz_KC/status/1448460489642684418 …

    eigenrobot added,

    Lord Woodstone (Toss all MAPS out the airlock) @EricMertz_KC
    The contagion is real. Chinese real estate developers Fantasia, Modern Lanf, and Sinic Group have all missed debt payments. This makes four of China's largest firms officially going into default.
    Show this thread
    1:29 AM - 14 Oct 2021
    • 3 Retweets
    • 46 Likes
    • ☉rthonormalist Bennett Hoffman Evil (Political) Scientist χτύπα με με αυτό Rudzki null Eli Courtwright Ape Hands Holder ᴄʏʙᴇʀɴᴇᴛɪᴄ ❤️‍🔥 sᴜʀᴠᴇɪʟʟᴀɴᴛ
    6 replies 3 retweets 46 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 14

        yields on international chinese real estate debt are up to something like 15%, purchases by intl buyers are stalling out something like only 10-20% of the sectors debt is international so maybe they could make up for it domestically by CCP fiat, but all of it all at once? dicey

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 14

        evergrande isnt even responding to inquiries from intl lenders technically theyre still in a grace period before proper default but this seems Highly Irregular and my expectation is that intl lenders are gonna be just SOL

        1 reply 1 retweet 16 likes
        Show this thread
      4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 14

        reportedly china is pretty sealed up financially so maybe this is like a bomb going off inside a bunker, sucks if you're in the bunker but maybe ok if you're outside maybe maybe

        3 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 14

        reportedly something like $100B in intl bonds from chinese real estate coming due before end of year INTERESTING TIMES

        2 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
        Show this thread
      6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 14

        eigenrobot Retweeted Lord Woodstone (Toss all MAPS out the airlock)

        be poetic if chinas rise and fall were bookended by olympics in beijing and given the way the simulators operate i have to expect this is how it will go downhttps://twitter.com/EricMertz_KC/status/1448488097092624387?t=FEQRQYykERORascD4Iiyyg&s=19 …

        eigenrobot added,

        Lord Woodstone (Toss all MAPS out the airlock) @EricMertz_KC
        Replying to @WorldhopperVive
        Oh yeah, things are looking bad in China going into winter. Why do you think they're banning spectators from the Winter Olympics in Beijing this February?
        1 reply 0 retweets 31 likes
        Show this thread
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Street sweeping operations‏ @ItsLateHere Oct 14
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        That sounds a lot like the doomsaying surrounding the three gorges dam last year. I'll believe it when I see it.

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
      3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 14
        Replying to @ItsLateHere

        believe what you like, probably not much in the way of decisions youll have to make around it

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Jordan Chase-Young‏ @jachaseyoung Oct 14
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        Roaring 20s indeed

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Candide III‏ @CandideIII Oct 14
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        Tbf Xi would probably be happy both to lock Chinese real estate out of international markets, and to reduce local real estate prices so that family formation is more affordable.

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Oct 14
        Replying to @CandideIII

        problem is this would be accompanied by economic disaster for most of china owing to 30% of GDP being in res construction and most personal savings in housing otoh maybe that was gonna happen anyway anyway good luck china

        0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      4. End of conversation

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