the france thing seems to have escalated. genuinely surprised by this. whats the french perspective here? feels like kind of an overreaction but maybe im missing something also seems like another L for the Biden foreign policy competency story? like, imagine they didnt see this
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Replying to @eigenrobot
1. Australia cancelled because the cost has doubled, the timeline is delayed and nothing is built, the Chinese threat is more potent than in 2016 and better tech is suddenly available 2. France is humiliated by the loss of a major project 7 months before the election
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Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot
3. More broadly, France doesn’t take the threat of war very seriously compared to the Quad or UK, so are happy to join in as a major power mediating between the many great powers in a multipolar world. They feel humiliated by exclusion but, because they don’t share the same…
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Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot
3 (cont.) risk assessment as the Quad and UK, that war is a very serious and imminent risk, AUKUS could never justify bringing them into the fold because their commitment is fundamentally different and they prize a flexibility we do not want inside an anti-China coalition
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Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot
4. The French complaining that they offered nuclear, Aus went diesel, and now wants nuclear is hugely misleading Australia is committed to fully sovereign naval capability. French nuclear subs would require multiple engine and fuel refits from France to operate over the…
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Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot
4 (cont.) lifetime of the subs’ operations. The US engines run their entire lives, meaning the RAN can operate them fully independently without a major nuclear facility in Aus, which is a huge advantage, especially given how mercurial France is and how they would control access
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Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot
5. It was humiliating to France not to be told before, though one imagines the heavy signalling from Canberra that the deal would be scrapped for a year would be enough to read the tea leaves But given the extent of response, I don’t think they’d’ve been happy in any case
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Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot
6. One must always remember the Quai d’Orsay (and this occupant of the Élysée) are very unlike most western foreign ministries in deeply caring about intangibles like pride, prestige and face Worse than money, is the humiliation of being left out, even if they wouldn’t want in
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Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot
All very reminiscent of the ship deal with Russia, although some of the circumstances are reversed of course.
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what deal was that?
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think france was pressured to stop sales of two amphibious assault ships in 2014 after crimea
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Ah thanks
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Replying to @eigenrobot @koality_bear and
Yeah, France's willingness to sell weapons to whoever means they aren't seen as a necessarily reliable partner. Also, there's all the industrial espionage. Don't forget that.
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