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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Sep 17

      the france thing seems to have escalated. genuinely surprised by this. whats the french perspective here? feels like kind of an overreaction but maybe im missing something also seems like another L for the Biden foreign policy competency story? like, imagine they didnt see this

      65 replies 11 retweets 291 likes
      Show this thread
    2. F!nn‏ @finnitejest Sep 17
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      1. Australia cancelled because the cost has doubled, the timeline is delayed and nothing is built, the Chinese threat is more potent than in 2016 and better tech is suddenly available 2. France is humiliated by the loss of a major project 7 months before the election

      8 replies 23 retweets 202 likes
    3. F!nn‏ @finnitejest Sep 17
      Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot

      3. More broadly, France doesn’t take the threat of war very seriously compared to the Quad or UK, so are happy to join in as a major power mediating between the many great powers in a multipolar world. They feel humiliated by exclusion but, because they don’t share the same…

      2 replies 4 retweets 78 likes
    4. F!nn‏ @finnitejest Sep 17
      Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot

      3 (cont.) risk assessment as the Quad and UK, that war is a very serious and imminent risk, AUKUS could never justify bringing them into the fold because their commitment is fundamentally different and they prize a flexibility we do not want inside an anti-China coalition

      3 replies 2 retweets 81 likes
    5. F!nn‏ @finnitejest Sep 17
      Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot

      4. The French complaining that they offered nuclear, Aus went diesel, and now wants nuclear is hugely misleading Australia is committed to fully sovereign naval capability. French nuclear subs would require multiple engine and fuel refits from France to operate over the…

      1 reply 2 retweets 57 likes
    6. F!nn‏ @finnitejest Sep 17
      Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot

      4 (cont.) lifetime of the subs’ operations. The US engines run their entire lives, meaning the RAN can operate them fully independently without a major nuclear facility in Aus, which is a huge advantage, especially given how mercurial France is and how they would control access

      1 reply 2 retweets 61 likes
    7. F!nn‏ @finnitejest Sep 17
      Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot

      5. It was humiliating to France not to be told before, though one imagines the heavy signalling from Canberra that the deal would be scrapped for a year would be enough to read the tea leaves But given the extent of response, I don’t think they’d’ve been happy in any case

      1 reply 1 retweet 52 likes
    8. F!nn‏ @finnitejest Sep 17
      Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot

      6. One must always remember the Quai d’Orsay (and this occupant of the Élysée) are very unlike most western foreign ministries in deeply caring about intangibles like pride, prestige and face Worse than money, is the humiliation of being left out, even if they wouldn’t want in

      2 replies 3 retweets 69 likes
    9. Andrija‏ @hazardppp Sep 17
      Replying to @finnitejest @eigenrobot

      All very reminiscent of the ship deal with Russia, although some of the circumstances are reversed of course.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    10. TED 🐨‏ @koality_bear Sep 17
      Replying to @hazardppp @finnitejest @eigenrobot

      what deal was that?

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Sep 17
      Replying to @koality_bear @hazardppp @finnitejest

      think france was pressured to stop sales of two amphibious assault ships in 2014 after crimea

      9:34 PM - 17 Sep 2021
      • 4 Likes
      • gymnosperm midwit magnet Alan Forrester TED🐨
      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. TED 🐨‏ @koality_bear Sep 17
          Replying to @eigenrobot @hazardppp @finnitejest

          Ah thanks

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. UHF243‏ @uhf243 Sep 17
          Replying to @eigenrobot @koality_bear and

          Yeah, France's willingness to sell weapons to whoever means they aren't seen as a necessarily reliable partner. Also, there's all the industrial espionage. Don't forget that.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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