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yeah, consistently beating a functional market should be impossible in his situation: if he did, the market would incorporate that info, and he wouldn't it's not like the market doesn't have access to his predictions
If he is making it public, it is impossible for it to happen for a long time, for that reason. People will just soak up the money until it stops coming. Hundred dollar bills on the sidewalk and all that. Sure one can fall once in a while but they WILL be picked up.
major sportsbooks factor in Nate’s and other major models for every event, so hard for models to ever win they *can* beat prediction markets tho
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