i mean he's better at it than basically any of the people trying to dunk on him on twitter all of whom confidently predicted that [bernie/trump] would sail to victory in 2020 and uh welp
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still really impressive
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its REALLY hard to beat betting markets if theyre functional i think. this is still really impressive. even so fair point
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Worth noting that a lot of this is sports and much of their coverage isn't tracked on this graph. So while it blows every other news org out of the water (can you imagine NYT publishing a track record like this?!) He's not this well calibrated in general.
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So I'd say underrated in general, but there are sites that are more underrated. Eg
@metaculushttps://www.metaculus.com/questions/?show-welcome=true …
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If they predict 96:95 in basketball, but result is 95:96 do they book it as 0% prediction or 99% (100%-1%err)?
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The latter
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Well, he tweaks his forecasting method so that the mean accuracy of his probability estimates matches empirical reality. Not hard to do. This is just one of two metrics.
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The other being how much residual variance is there. This chart doesn’t show that.
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