annals of fitting a trend line to a unit root series with an exponential trend right before a major downturnhttps://twitter.com/EGirlMonetarism/status/1431990990634618880 …
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like eyeballing fitting a trendline to a period ending right before any downturn in the series would produce a massive and permanent "output gap"
do i believe those are "real" possibilities had we avoided crises forever. I mean probably not does any monetary policy seem likely to have been able to close those gaps. seems like no "true monetary policy has never been tried" you got me there
Yeah trend lines are a spook, I just want to see how tight the labor market can get and what consequences that even has. Central bankers probably shouldn't *say* "were going to fuck around and find out" but they absolutely should keep this going.
the worry for me isn't how tight the labor market is but how fast it tightens. if you pace it right you get innovation that reduces labor demand but if you do it too fast you get a wage/price spiral
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