an Expert is someone we gotta trust no matter what we see looking at his track record predicting out of samplehttps://twitter.com/russiancosmist/status/1430306225636446213 …
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eigenrobot Retweeted Martin
an Expert is someone we gotta trust no matter what we see looking at his track record predicting out of samplehttps://twitter.com/russiancosmist/status/1430306225636446213 …
eigenrobot added,
eigenrobot Retweeted eigenrobot
im sure hes a very nice person and that this is a challenging environment for everyone etc etc and if he were competent he would factor that into his public predictionshttps://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1430521484993187843?s=19 …
eigenrobot added,
lets see how fauci defenders did predicting out of sample (last year is out of sample because Discourse is a Markov process) March 9, 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2020/03/09/fauci-says-cruising-is-ok-if-you-are-healthy/ …pic.twitter.com/UvkZsA50XL
its ok to be wrong, its fine to make predictions even if you were wrong (although it would be nice if one acknowledged fucking it up and factoring this into future predictions)
but to expect people to take you at your word, uncritically, after repeatedly being wrong in your One Job demonstrates that you view your interlocutors as suckers
this is like demanding accuracy from ronald mcdonald or the philly phanatic
no one let's Ronald McDonald issue proclamations or at least theyre not enforced
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