im sure hes a very nice person and that this is a challenging environment for everyone etc etc and if he were competent he would factor that into his public predictionshttps://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1430521484993187843?s=19 …
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lets see how fauci defenders did predicting out of sample (last year is out of sample because Discourse is a Markov process) March 9, 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2020/03/09/fauci-says-cruising-is-ok-if-you-are-healthy/ …pic.twitter.com/UvkZsA50XL
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its ok to be wrong, its fine to make predictions even if you were wrong (although it would be nice if one acknowledged fucking it up and factoring this into future predictions)
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but to expect people to take you at your word, uncritically, after repeatedly being wrong in your One Job demonstrates that you view your interlocutors as suckers
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ironically that might be one prediction hes consistently gotten right so really when you think about it in a sense maybe fauci is an Expert after all
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He keeps giving valid conditionals, yes? He's not saying "this is what'll happen," he's saying "X will happen if sociological factors line up at Y," which they do not, which doesn't seem on him or his prediction scopes.
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I see conditional statements in two of four. one condition is so vague as to be useless here and one was already met at the time that he stated it.
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Some of these “experts” lost me early on with their logical fallacy re “masks don’t work” on the basis that they didn’t believe they had evidence they worked. Maybe they should say “we don’t know” more often.
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Or indeed condition claims/forecasts with plenty of uncertainty where appropriate. It seems there is plenty of temptation instead for the experts to speak with unwarranted certainty.
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