Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

Tweets

eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25

    eigenrobot Retweeted Martin

    an Expert is someone we gotta trust no matter what we see looking at his track record predicting out of samplehttps://twitter.com/russiancosmist/status/1430306225636446213 …

    eigenrobot added,

    Martin @russiancosmist
    Locked RT, can't claim any credit for this: pic.twitter.com/8mDjHCp9WI
    6:09 AM - 25 Aug 2021
    • 51 Retweets
    • 468 Likes
    • Peter Brown codingAlong Genevieve error Stefan Mai Geologist In Exile Szymon Talaga Coxinha Mr Rabbit Hole
    27 replies 51 retweets 468 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25

        eigenrobot Retweeted eigenrobot

        im sure hes a very nice person and that this is a challenging environment for everyone etc etc and if he were competent he would factor that into his public predictionshttps://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1430521484993187843?s=19 …

        eigenrobot added,

        eigenrobot @eigenrobot
        Replying to @grioghar
        it doesnt matter why hes publicly and repeatedly wrong. hes publicly and repeatedly wrong
        4 replies 2 retweets 118 likes
        Show this thread
      3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25

        this thread is a trap

        3 replies 0 retweets 54 likes
        Show this thread
      4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25

        lets see how fauci defenders did predicting out of sample (last year is out of sample because Discourse is a Markov process) March 9, 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/douggollan/2020/03/09/fauci-says-cruising-is-ok-if-you-are-healthy/ …pic.twitter.com/UvkZsA50XL

        4 replies 3 retweets 63 likes
        Show this thread
      5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25

        its ok to be wrong, its fine to make predictions even if you were wrong (although it would be nice if one acknowledged fucking it up and factoring this into future predictions)

        2 replies 1 retweet 63 likes
        Show this thread
      6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25

        but to expect people to take you at your word, uncritically, after repeatedly being wrong in your One Job demonstrates that you view your interlocutors as suckers

        4 replies 4 retweets 115 likes
        Show this thread
      7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25

        ironically that might be one prediction hes consistently gotten right so really when you think about it in a sense maybe fauci is an Expert after all

        7 replies 2 retweets 84 likes
        Show this thread
      8. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25

        eigenrobot Retweeted eigenrobot

        https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1430594511948763140?s=19 …

        eigenrobot added,

        eigenrobot @eigenrobot
        Replying to @mrgunn
        its fine that spokespeople lie constantly what i object to is pretending that theyre something other than spokespeople who lie constantly
        0 replies 0 retweets 33 likes
        Show this thread
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Scriv‏ @LossFunxionLovr Aug 25
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        He keeps giving valid conditionals, yes? He's not saying "this is what'll happen," he's saying "X will happen if sociological factors line up at Y," which they do not, which doesn't seem on him or his prediction scopes.

        2 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
      3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 25
        Replying to @LossFunxionLovr

        I see conditional statements in two of four. one condition is so vague as to be useless here and one was already met at the time that he stated it.

        4 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. David‏ @GwynneThomson Aug 25
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        Some of these “experts” lost me early on with their logical fallacy re “masks don’t work” on the basis that they didn’t believe they had evidence they worked. Maybe they should say “we don’t know” more often.

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      3. David‏ @GwynneThomson Aug 25
        Replying to @GwynneThomson @eigenrobot

        Or indeed condition claims/forecasts with plenty of uncertainty where appropriate. It seems there is plenty of temptation instead for the experts to speak with unwarranted certainty.

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      4. End of conversation

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2021 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info