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eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

      ok so gaming this out a bit there are probably several dozen thousand people we want to get out of Afghanistan of them maybe a dozen thousand Americans according to various government things we basically own the airport but Taliban control everything else i think were fucked,

      20 replies 5 retweets 172 likes
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    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

      because the Taliban seem to be aggressively blocking people from getting to the airport and our options are: 1. just accept it 2. plead with the Taliban but were already doing that and its not working 3. fly in lots more troops and try to break out of the airport

      27 replies 2 retweets 95 likes
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    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

      so i am imagining we could do (3) but the problem is then we're actively at war with the Taliban and even if they lose every engagement they can just start killing lots of people we want to evacuate anyway, people who are in territory they control

      10 replies 1 retweet 77 likes
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    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

      so basically my hunch is that the biden administration knows its fucked one way or another and is just buying time not even to accomplish anything in all likelihood just to avoid the next bad news cycle

      4 replies 2 retweets 100 likes
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      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

      anyway this is just a guess, maybe they figure something else out and actually get people to the airport. maybe seizing afghan reserves and holding those hostage will work. maybe a miracle occurs but this seems like whats going on rn

      7:09 PM - 18 Aug 2021
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      6 replies 2 retweets 81 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

          eigenrobot Retweeted

          wrt "reserves" this is what im talking about saw a story about this earlier, this is a good elaboration tldr we have all of the old governments money frozen outside of Afghanistan https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=19 …

          eigenrobot added,

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          1 reply 1 retweet 41 likes
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        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

          so id imagine the hostage negotiation involves the return of this money at least

          3 replies 1 retweet 33 likes
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        4. End of conversation
        1. rak3re  🇦🇲‏ @rak3re Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          I agree with your sense of the reality, but I think there’s also furious negotiation (pleading) going on by the Biden admin to the Taliban rn. The Taliban can extort us for basically anything they might ever want in order for us to avoid the worst case (hostage crisis, etc).

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Micah  🇺🇸‏ @mparrish Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          Probably make some concession to Taliban allies in Qatar in exchange for safe passage.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Micah  🇺🇸‏ @mparrish Aug 18
          Replying to @mparrish @eigenrobot

          Cash bounties for Americans delivered safely might also work.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. French American Data Guy‏ @mikey_bk Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          What Who the fuck made that deal

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. Life Is Brief‏ @recordofabeing Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          Every American there, knew the timeline had them out months ago, right? Do they want to leave, or do they want to be helpful, likely martyrs, to improve the country? If the latter, mad respect. This is why I wish the Afghan army fought harder, and didn't cling to planes.

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