ok so gaming this out a bit there are probably several dozen thousand people we want to get out of Afghanistan of them maybe a dozen thousand Americans according to various government things we basically own the airport but Taliban control everything else i think were fucked,
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so basically my hunch is that the biden administration knows its fucked one way or another and is just buying time not even to accomplish anything in all likelihood just to avoid the next bad news cycle
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anyway this is just a guess, maybe they figure something else out and actually get people to the airport. maybe seizing afghan reserves and holding those hostage will work. maybe a miracle occurs but this seems like whats going on rn
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wrt "reserves" this is what im talking about saw a story about this earlier, this is a good elaboration tldr we have all of the old governments money frozen outside of Afghanistan https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=19 …
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so id imagine the hostage negotiation involves the return of this money at least
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Or we can make massive concessions to the Taliban, including full recognition etc.
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Agreed, Taliban gets $ & a free hand in internal matters as long as evacuation continues, and the admin tries to nudge the national conversation back to red-state covid panic (which started today). Might work in terms of news cycle management, but if a US citizen gets killed…
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It is unimaginable that we do nothing, and yet I see no indication that anything else will happen. I can't put into words my shock.
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The 82nd are gonna be doing 3.
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if we end up doing 3, letting the capital fall without mounting a defense, when we knew there were 10k+ americans + 50k+ afghans we needed to evacuate will be a historic self-own (probably already is)
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So far there does not seem to be any actual fighting at the Airport. All the Taliban has to do is mortar the runway while planes are taking off/landing and get lucky once to make this all go very bad very fast.
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yeah there was some discussion of this elsewhere maybe skepticism they have artillery enough to manage this
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