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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

      ok so gaming this out a bit there are probably several dozen thousand people we want to get out of Afghanistan of them maybe a dozen thousand Americans according to various government things we basically own the airport but Taliban control everything else i think were fucked,

      20 replies 5 retweets 172 likes
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    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

      because the Taliban seem to be aggressively blocking people from getting to the airport and our options are: 1. just accept it 2. plead with the Taliban but were already doing that and its not working 3. fly in lots more troops and try to break out of the airport

      27 replies 2 retweets 95 likes
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      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

      so i am imagining we could do (3) but the problem is then we're actively at war with the Taliban and even if they lose every engagement they can just start killing lots of people we want to evacuate anyway, people who are in territory they control

      7:06 PM - 18 Aug 2021
      • 1 Retweet
      • 77 Likes
      • bob poekert vineland Lewis 🇺🇸🇹🇼 blissfully married srav 🕯️ parmuffindes Alice's Logic Jewnbuggy Retvrns
      10 replies 1 retweet 77 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

          so basically my hunch is that the biden administration knows its fucked one way or another and is just buying time not even to accomplish anything in all likelihood just to avoid the next bad news cycle

          4 replies 2 retweets 100 likes
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        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

          anyway this is just a guess, maybe they figure something else out and actually get people to the airport. maybe seizing afghan reserves and holding those hostage will work. maybe a miracle occurs but this seems like whats going on rn

          6 replies 2 retweets 81 likes
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        4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

          eigenrobot Retweeted

          wrt "reserves" this is what im talking about saw a story about this earlier, this is a good elaboration tldr we have all of the old governments money frozen outside of Afghanistan https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=19 …

          eigenrobot added,

          This Tweet is unavailable.
          1 reply 1 retweet 41 likes
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        5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

          so id imagine the hostage negotiation involves the return of this money at least

          3 replies 1 retweet 33 likes
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        6. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Abraham Ash (Neophyte Dunehead)‏ @Historycourses Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          Or we can make massive concessions to the Taliban, including full recognition etc.

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. HMS Reepicheep‏ @HMSReepicheep Aug 18
          Replying to @Historycourses @eigenrobot

          Agreed, Taliban gets $ & a free hand in internal matters as long as evacuation continues, and the admin tries to nudge the national conversation back to red-state covid panic (which started today). Might work in terms of news cycle management, but if a US citizen gets killed…

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. DeFiJunkie.soon™‏ @junkie_de Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          It is unimaginable that we do nothing, and yet I see no indication that anything else will happen. I can't put into words my shock.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Midnight Blaz≡‏ @Midnight_Blaze_ Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          The 82nd are gonna be doing 3.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. COURAGEOUS TRANQUILITY‏ @ggggguillotine Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          if we end up doing 3, letting the capital fall without mounting a defense, when we knew there were 10k+ americans + 50k+ afghans we needed to evacuate will be a historic self-own (probably already is)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Grug reed gud‏ @DeltaSchmitt Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          So far there does not seem to be any actual fighting at the Airport. All the Taliban has to do is mortar the runway while planes are taking off/landing and get lucky once to make this all go very bad very fast.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18
          Replying to @DeltaSchmitt

          yeah there was some discussion of this elsewhere maybe skepticism they have artillery enough to manage this

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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