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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

    ok so gaming this out a bit there are probably several dozen thousand people we want to get out of Afghanistan of them maybe a dozen thousand Americans according to various government things we basically own the airport but Taliban control everything else i think were fucked,

    7:03 PM - 18 Aug 2021
    • 5 Retweets
    • 172 Likes
    • *** eleanorina Ryan mechromancer Patrick Krusiec vineland Vicki blissfully married srav Jewnbuggy Retvrns
    20 replies 5 retweets 172 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

        because the Taliban seem to be aggressively blocking people from getting to the airport and our options are: 1. just accept it 2. plead with the Taliban but were already doing that and its not working 3. fly in lots more troops and try to break out of the airport

        27 replies 2 retweets 95 likes
        Show this thread
      3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

        so i am imagining we could do (3) but the problem is then we're actively at war with the Taliban and even if they lose every engagement they can just start killing lots of people we want to evacuate anyway, people who are in territory they control

        10 replies 1 retweet 77 likes
        Show this thread
      4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

        so basically my hunch is that the biden administration knows its fucked one way or another and is just buying time not even to accomplish anything in all likelihood just to avoid the next bad news cycle

        4 replies 2 retweets 100 likes
        Show this thread
      5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

        anyway this is just a guess, maybe they figure something else out and actually get people to the airport. maybe seizing afghan reserves and holding those hostage will work. maybe a miracle occurs but this seems like whats going on rn

        6 replies 2 retweets 81 likes
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      6. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

        eigenrobot Retweeted

        wrt "reserves" this is what im talking about saw a story about this earlier, this is a good elaboration tldr we have all of the old governments money frozen outside of Afghanistan https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=19 …

        eigenrobot added,

        This Tweet is unavailable.
        1 reply 1 retweet 41 likes
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      7. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18

        so id imagine the hostage negotiation involves the return of this money at least

        3 replies 1 retweet 33 likes
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      8. End of conversation
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. lazy river‏ @newplasticbags Aug 18
        Replying to @CriticalOcean @eigenrobot

        This. They actually have a very interesting strategic position and "mercy" or cooperation could lend credibility and legitimacy to the "new government"

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. Urysohn‏ @urynsohn Aug 18
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        Organize military transports to the airport with strong threads of retalation if something happens to people on those transports. France and UK are already do this (the threat is implicit).

        3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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      2. Prince Vogelfrei‏ @PrinceVogel Aug 18
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        By a dozen thousand you mean 1200 right No way there's 12,000 Americans in Afghanistan?

        4 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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