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eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
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@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 17

      wild so apparently the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would involve lots of converted, unarmored commercial vessels to carry troops this seems like a bad idea in the sense that they would be easy to sink, and doing so would cripple chinas exporting ability?https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/07/27/thousands-of-ships-millions-of-troops-china-is-assembling-a-huge-assault-flotilla-for-a-possible-attack-on-taiwan/amp/ …

      55 replies 15 retweets 212 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Lawyer Dog‏ @TheClarksTale Aug 17
      Replying to @eigenrobot

      First you crush the known anti-ship defenses, then you send in the armored transports (drawing fire & revealing more defenses), and THEN you send the civvies. And if a bunch of those get sunk, so what? Look up D-Day losses.

      4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
    3. BrucePeterBobby‏ @CullanRichard Aug 18
      Replying to @TheClarksTale @eigenrobot

      So if China takes insane losses to “win,” they’ll have a guerrilla war to deal with—which will last decades bc insurgency math—while under severe intntl sanction & if they lose, complete humiliation/possible collapse. Still risk collapse if they win. Risk reward doesn’t add up

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Substrate Monopoly‏ @Substr8Monopoly Aug 18
      Replying to @CullanRichard @TheClarksTale @eigenrobot

      I think China could afford a much harder crackdown on an insurgency than what we're used to from Western occupations. Additionally unlike Western occupations, Taiwan and China have a largely shared culture and language, resistance would likely decrease over time bc assimilation.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Aug 18
      Replying to @Substr8Monopoly @CullanRichard @TheClarksTale

      the issue in this case is that theyd probably have to do it during a global economic collapse

      9:05 AM - 18 Aug 2021
      • 2 Likes
      • BrucePeterBobby Potato Of Reason
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Lawyer Dog‏ @TheClarksTale Aug 18
          Replying to @eigenrobot @Substr8Monopoly @CullanRichard

          I'm not sure that either (1) they're persuaded of that or (2) even if known, it would deter them. Possessing Taiwan appears to be a (intentionally fostered by gov't) part of mainland's psyche & self-identity. That can obviously trump practical, & economic considerations.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Substrate Monopoly‏ @Substr8Monopoly Aug 18
          Replying to @TheClarksTale @eigenrobot @CullanRichard

          Ofc they probe for convenient moments, but they can't wait for *the* global economic collapse forever (like btc maxis do). Inv of Taiwan is super path-dependent IMO, what are tensions pre-inv, can it be a limited war or is it the opening move of the "total war of destiny"?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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