hmmm has this been overlooked I think it would be the wrong lesson to draw depending on how one delineates these things and dangerously wrong in the sense that it makes military conflict more likelyhttps://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1427661617588801539 …
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having an incompetent political leadership is extremely bad in the short term because there the ones making decisions but it strikes me as a somewhat self-correcting problem in our case to the extent that it causes an incompetent administration to be replaced with a better one
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a grossly incompetent military _per se_ is a much worse longer term problem because it is seems more difficult to resolve
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so to the extent this holds what you end up with might be china acting aggressively, expecting political leadership to crumple at some point in the future, finding this is wrong in one way or another, and running into the teeth of a very capable military
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this is a much worse outcome than them simply correctly anticipating that no their enemy's military is in fact pretty lethal because now lots of people are dead and the global economy is wrecked
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their bellicosity over the last week has been a really bad idea for everyone and feels pretty self-defeating I think posting on twitter about how you are going to Crush people sort of has an effect of making people consider actions that might lead to them not being crushed
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Replying to @eigenrobot
Normalising the idea in peoples head tat Taiwan is lost in the long term is a much greater victory than some surprise attack.
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Replying to @eigenrobot
I have no idea about Japans military capabilities tbh. But if they can make it into a longer fight then this gives opportunity to draw the USA in I suppose.
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