well the past is what it is; all of the reasoning is counterfactual; every counterfactual necessarily involves an ahistorical assumption but people were mad at lyman's proposal *in real time*
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Replying to @HMBrough_ @AlexGodofsky and
My takeaway from this pandemic thing is I rather live in a society where we eat the cost and have more liberty/freedom/whatever than what we got. I may change my mind if we get a virus more like the plague where I begin to wonder if it's an existential threat.
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Replying to @ouranometrian @HMBrough_ and
The cost of completely abandoning NPIs and distancing was going to be millions dead. Back of the envelope dollar equivalent was something like a year of US GDP.
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Replying to @eigenrobot @ouranometrian and
It's a lot lot bigger than the cost of the other stuff!
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Replying to @AlexGodofsky @eigenrobot and
I don't buy that there isn't state capacity for quarantines. I do think it was more politically palatable to make businesses the arm of NPI enforcement. I don't think it's better for the state to wind up trying to do the same thing with hamfisted means.
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Replying to @eigenrobot @sgodofsk and
Another cause where the better policy would also have been more "authoritarian".
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a 0% authoritarian policy would have had mass production of vaccines up by that summer
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Replying to @eigenrobot @sgodofsk and
The context of this was not a battle in which, if Lyman won, the FDA is enshrined for another century, while if Lyman loses, the FDA disappears.
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