tangential to this though im not totally sure time is on chinas side in the medium to long term for the usual reasons demographics, command economy, etc basically their advantages are being large and having a bunch of catch up growth right but that peters out idk
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Also, weird that we accept this logic that Taiwan making de facto independence de jure would lead to the collapse of the CCP. I’m not saying it is true or not, but that it is taken as an article of faith in these discussions without much interrogation.
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oh thats weird i wasnt aware this was a common view seems maybe plausible but not obvious
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It's a really fascinating interview in generalhttps://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/spiegel-interview-with-singapore-s-lee-kuan-yew-it-s-stupid-to-be-afraid-a-369128.html …
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Is he a Moon landing truther?pic.twitter.com/QVgVXdmiAN
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This is also the opposite of the scenario we face: China is in the position of the German general staff in having a narrow window to exploit. The United States is not actually declining - but Chinese growth is very obviously bounded by demographic and institutional realities
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Chiang Kai Shek not just saying "better to rule Taiwan than pine for Shanghai" was a mistake
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Well, kind of. Russia was fast tracking their rail networks and that actually fucked them because the Germans could easily gauge their cars to Russian rails instead of building new infrastructure. It's part of the reason that the eastern front was so mobile.
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oh huh. hmm
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