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eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

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eigenrobot.substack.com
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    1. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

      eigenrobot Retweeted Richard Hanania

      I'm not in the weeds on this so grain of salt but I think % of cases that occurred in vaccinated is not a great metric in the first place and it only gets less useful when %vaccinated in a given area is very high or very lowhttps://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1421158741861228545 …

      eigenrobot added,

      Richard Hanania @RichardHanania
      Washington Post tells us that the vaccinated make up 75% of cases in Pronvinceton. Sounds pretty bad, until you go to Yahoo News, and you learn that it has a nearly 100% vaccination rate for adults. Our lives are going to be forever run by junk science. pic.twitter.com/QTmHCoqnzA
      Show this thread
      15 replies 3 retweets 102 likes
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    2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

      a very simple example: if literally everyone is vaccinated then yeah shockingly 100% of cases are going to occur among the vaccinated this doesnt really tell you anything other than "breakthrough cases can occur" but if you print this without context people will lose their shi

      6 replies 4 retweets 73 likes
      Show this thread
    3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

      what you might really be interested in is something like P(infection | vaccinated) vs P(infection | unvaccinated) unfortunately my suspicion this gets really hard to measure when almost everyone is vaccinated or almost no one is

      3 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
      Show this thread
    4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

      reason being that once you get a really small denominator in (% cases in unvaxxed) / (% unvaxxed in population) small errors in your estimation of (% unvaxxed in population) have a much larger impact in your estimation of the relative risk

      2 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
      Show this thread
      eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

      anyway just spitballing but first pass at least im kind of wincing about all of this

      11:44 AM - 30 Jul 2021
      • 17 Likes
      • Sirsfurther Joel Anna Alan Forrester ConvoOfCosmos Potato Of Reason Rich Durst
      4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
        1. 𝚔𝚎𝚢𝚏𝚘𝚋‏ @keyfob256 Jul 30
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          It's usually not a good idea to draw any conclusions based on a single metric. You need several, and there are usually quite a few. Which invites cherry-picking (intentional or not). This, of course, is not limited to the subject at hand

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. tantum‏ @QuasLacrimas Jul 30
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          an outbreak of 800 cases of any communicable diesease in Ptown MA probably has an external validity problem

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30
          Replying to @QuasLacrimas

          yeah I saw that mentioned

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Regretting‏ @R3gretting Jul 30
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          Regretting Retweeted John Burn-Murdoch

          https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1418952126244478977 …

          Regretting added,

          John Burn-MurdochVerified account @jburnmurdoch
          NEW: people worry when they hear "40% of hospitalisations are fully vaxxed", but this chart shows that's actually good news. The more people you vaccinate, the higher their share of hospitalisations, but the *total* number in hospital is a fraction of what it would otherwise be pic.twitter.com/rPVbvl8zTW
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          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. redoatz‏ @redoatz Jul 30
          Replying to @eigenrobot

          you are right to wince the volume of terrible vaxxed vs nonvaxxed stats going around right now is just epic

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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