Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
eigenrobot's profile
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
eigenrobot
@eigenrobot

Tweets

eigenrobot

@eigenrobot

robot. friend.

eigenrobot.substack.com
Joined July 2013

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

    eigenrobot Retweeted Richard Hanania

    I'm not in the weeds on this so grain of salt but I think % of cases that occurred in vaccinated is not a great metric in the first place and it only gets less useful when %vaccinated in a given area is very high or very lowhttps://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1421158741861228545 …

    eigenrobot added,

    Richard Hanania @RichardHanania
    Washington Post tells us that the vaccinated make up 75% of cases in Pronvinceton. Sounds pretty bad, until you go to Yahoo News, and you learn that it has a nearly 100% vaccination rate for adults. Our lives are going to be forever run by junk science. pic.twitter.com/QTmHCoqnzA
    Show this thread
    11:34 AM - 30 Jul 2021
    • 3 Retweets
    • 102 Likes
    • caesararum The Soren Professor Glorfindel Atheists/Neopagans Posting Their L's zywiec Sirsfurther Enye Word aidan (in nyc till the 29th) anticeedings
    15 replies 3 retweets 102 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

        a very simple example: if literally everyone is vaccinated then yeah shockingly 100% of cases are going to occur among the vaccinated this doesnt really tell you anything other than "breakthrough cases can occur" but if you print this without context people will lose their shi

        6 replies 4 retweets 73 likes
        Show this thread
      3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

        what you might really be interested in is something like P(infection | vaccinated) vs P(infection | unvaccinated) unfortunately my suspicion this gets really hard to measure when almost everyone is vaccinated or almost no one is

        3 replies 0 retweets 37 likes
        Show this thread
      4. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

        reason being that once you get a really small denominator in (% cases in unvaxxed) / (% unvaxxed in population) small errors in your estimation of (% unvaxxed in population) have a much larger impact in your estimation of the relative risk

        2 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
        Show this thread
      5. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30

        anyway just spitballing but first pass at least im kind of wincing about all of this

        4 replies 0 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Blufus Clunt‏ @GordonBrownhour Jul 30
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        Also the total numbers in a lot of these places are very small. 75% sounds really bad until you hear there where only 5 total cases

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. This Tweet is unavailable.
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Schism‏ @raskolnehkov Jul 30
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        generally agree, but if there is a significant outbreak (like, hundreds to thousands of new cases) in a population nearly 100% vaccinated, it does seem to put a wrench in the idea of "if everyone were to just get vaccinated, covid would go away"

        2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      3. eigenrobot‏ @eigenrobot Jul 30
        Replying to @raskolnehkov

        yup absolutely

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Miguel Montevista‏ @MiguelMontevist Jul 30
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        The good metric would be percent chance of infection upon exposure, compared to unvaccinated, but that's an impossible number to find.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. New conversation
      2. ♡ Charlotte Fang 刹利 ( 🏜, 🏜)‏ @CharlieFang77 Jul 30
        Replying to @eigenrobot

        thats the case here though; that town in question is very high vacc rate so it becomes useful to see what percentage of cases were vaccinated. it's a tiny sample tho so you cant get anything meaningful out of it

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Máirín Ní Ḋuḃṫaiġ ᚋᚐᚐᚔᚏᚔᚔᚅ #BLM‏ @mairin Jul 30
        Replying to @CharlieFang77 @eigenrobot

        it's a vacation area w lots of out of towners so resident vax rate is not so helpful

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2021 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info