But I always go back to market crashes being mostly a loss of confidence. Will there be a loss of confidence in real estate there, and can the govt overcome that somehow if there is one. I think a sharp pullback is possible, but hard to envision a complete crash
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Replying to @keyfob256 @eigenrobot
The contagion might take the form of pull back in foreign investment (i.e. buying real estate in the US), in order to scoop up..... Ok now that I've typed that, I question my sanity here
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Replying to @keyfob256 @eigenrobot
A stranger thing to think about is the possibility of capital flight from the China markets, which might actually drive ours up.
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Replying to @keyfob256
I was wondering about that wonder if they clamp down with capital controls. that would be interesting
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Replying to @eigenrobot
didnt they recently do some clampdown on bitcoin? (which is a much better way to move "money" between countries than typical foreign exchange)
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Replying to @keyfob256
yeah I think they did. very interesting point. hmmm.
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Replying to @eigenrobot
hmmm indeed. The banking foreign exchange is heavily tracked (by most govts), and easily clamped down.
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Replying to @keyfob256 @eigenrobot
I'm usually a little late figuring this stuff out (because I'm just some rando shlump with not enough information)... So maybe this process has been underway for a while
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Replying to @keyfob256 @eigenrobot
Which... here's the 2nd order effect: What happens when the dumb money figures out the the smart money has bailed out?
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someone's gotta end up holding the bag I guess
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Replying to @eigenrobot
Yeah, but: The dumb money figuring out they've been left behind might have a bigger effect than the smart money bailing out.
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